moderator: Welcome to an investor chat with Paweł Łapiński, Vice President of Grupa Azoty, and Marek Czyż, Vice President of Grupa Azoty Polyolefins SA. Our meeting will focus on Grupa Azoty companies’ first-quarter 2020 results and the Polimery Police project.
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Grupa Azoty: Hello. Welcome everyone. We will be happy to take your questions now. Paweł Łapiński, Vice President of the Grupa Azoty S.A. Management Board, will answer your questions concerning the financial performance, developments and market environment of the Grupa Azoty Group companies. Marek Czyż, Vice President of Grupa Azoty Polyolefins S.A., will take your questions concerning Polimery Police.
pasha: Hello. When will final agreements on equity financing of Polimery Police be signed?
Paweł Łapiński: Yesterday, May 31st 2020, Grupa Azoty S.A. and Grupa Azoty Police proudly announced the signing of financing agreements for the Polimery Police project. These included credit facility agreements with a syndicate of Polish and international financial institutions and transaction documents setting out the terms of equity investment and financing with Grupa LOTOS S.A., Hyundai, and KIND.
With these agreements, we have secured full fundng for the project.
shareholder: Hello. Will Police consolidate the Polimery Police SPV with the full method? In other words, will the company control the SPV, or exercise joint control and use the equity method?
Paweł Łapiński: The equity method will be used from the time of entry by joint sponsors and reduction of our equity interest in Police to below 50%.
guest: Funding has been secured. What will the next step be? When do you expect turnkey delivery of the complete project?
Marek Czyż: Having achieved the major milestone of signing debt and equity financing agreements, we can fully concentrate on the performance of the EPC contract. We are currently in the process of obtaining further building permits. Hyundai is hard at work on all subprojects.
The plant is to start commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2022.
inwestor_2k: Hello. Let me first congratulate you on securing full funding for Police. The deadline was the end of May, and you met it. I’m wondering, though, why part of the credit facility is denominated in the euro and the other part in US dollars? Has the general contractor requested to be paid in those two currencies?
Paweł Łapiński: The currency structure of the financing was subject to an in-depth analysis and its current form reflects the conditions prevailing on the polypropylene market.
Tomasz Stępień: Can you tell us something about the proposed propane purchasing structure: number of suppliers, contract duration, supply sources by geography? At what stage is the agreement signing process right now?
Marek Czyż: We are negotiating commercial terms with propane suppliers. The potential feedstock suppliers to Grupa Azoty Polyolefins S.A. are leaders of the European, Asian and American markets. The negotiations have already led to the execution of letters of intent initially providing for the supply of propane in volumes significantly exceeding the Polimery Police production capacity. The propane contracting strategy of Grupa Azoty Polyolefins is aimed at securing supplies under short-term (1–2 year) contracts and spot contracts. The final contract negotiations are scheduled for 2021, which is long before production starts.
Guest: Hello. The credit facilities are a Children’s day gift from you to us :) When are you finalising the financing from KIND, Hyundai and LOTOS?
Paweł Łapiński: We are glad to see the financing transaction closed and our shareholders happy :)
The financing agreements have just been finalised. As previously announced, a credit facility agreement was concluded yesterday with a syndicate of Polish and international financial institutions, and that equity investment and financing agreements were signed with Grupa LOTOS, Hyundai and KIND in respect of the Polimery Police project.
policki_inwestor: Will the port terminal under construction also be used to handle raw materials currently transported via the Mijanka terminal?
Marek Czyż: Given the technology used, the planned propane and ethylene terminal will be used to handle only those particular feedstocks.
Tomasz Stępień: What impact is Covid 19 having on the progress of work under the Polimery Police project?
Marek Czyż: The company has not identified any significant impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the progress of Polimery Police. The company and the general contractor Hyundai Engineering are constantly monitoring the status of deliveries and purchase orders, particularly with respect to plant components with long delivery times. No delays are expected that could affect the project schedule.
The main challenge facing the general contractor will be to recruit highly qualified staff. Hyundai Engineering is thoroughly analysing the potential of the domestic labour market and establishing relationships with subcontractors, particularly local ones.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, Hyundai has implemented strict safety procedures, which have enabled construction work to be carried on all subprojects.
Guest: How much are you going to spend on research this year? As I can see from your presentation, project budgets are quite sizeable.
Paweł Łapiński: Our R&D plans are defined in the same way as budgets. First of all, we are driven by our goal of allocating up to 1% of the Group’s revenue to innovation (including research services and own research as well as pilot process units). Recently we have communicated success in obtaining grants from the National Centre for Research and Development for R&D projects. A month ago, as many as four of our grant applications received positive recognition.
Guest: Propylene, plastics and OXO prices suggest your results should have been worse. Are the improved earnings reported by this segment at ZAK an effect of reconstruction of power generating assets or are there other factors at play?
Paweł Łapiński: No, it’s not only that. The improved first-quarter performance delivered by the OXO segment came also as a result of higher volumes we managed to place on the market, as well as lower natural gas prices. We are very pleased with the earnings given the segment’s poor performance in 2019.
Andy: Is it possible that the company will change its approach to the fuel used by the Puławy CHP Plant? Given the current prices of carbon allowances and natural gas prices, aren’t you reconsidering the technology? Or is the project one hundred percent sure to be coal-fired and any changes are out of the question?
Paweł Łapiński: The Puławy CHP Plant project is already under way. No sufficient reasons exists to stop the project at this point. The production plant in Puławy needs energy independence and a balanced supply. And independence can only be achieved with competitive access to fuel.
Guest: The company has recently brought a plastic compounding unit on stream, yet, looking at volumes, no year-on-year growth in sales of modified plastics can be seen. Why is that?
Paweł Łapiński: Compound plastics sales volumes are growing at a rate lower than expected. The reasons are a drop in demand caused by COVID-19 and the continued downturn in the automotive industry.
policki_inwestor: Will Grupa Azoty Polyolefins S.A. collaborate with 3D printing companies?
Marek Czyż: As a rule, polypropylene is not commonly used in 3D printing, which primarily uses engineering plastics, such as ABS, PLA, PET, PVA, PA, etc. The company is now gauging market demand, and if there is any demand for polypropylene from 3D printing companies, it will consider cooperation with potential customers for the product.
Guest: Hello. In an interview for the Parkiet daily, Mr Wardacki mentioned the cost reduction measures. Can you specify the size (in millions or in percentage terms) of cost savings planned to be achieved this year as a result of those measures relative to the previous year? Will those savings be permanent or are they rather designed to cut administrative expenses?
Paweł Łapiński: Such a question is very difficult to answer. The thing is: what is the benchmark? If it is the previous year, it should be remembered that in 2020 we have to deal with a number of costs which we refer to at the Group as mandatory ones, that is costs beyond our control, required by law. These are, for instance, higher costs of services brought about by an increase in the minimum wage, the introduction of occupational pension schemes (PPE) and employee capital plans (PPK), change in the basis of measuring some provisions, etc. As a result, the cost reduction we achieved relative to the adjusted previous year’s level has been cancelled out by mandatory costs. Nevertheless, we strive to effectively keep fixed costs at a reasonable level.
Guest: Will the Management Board recommend retaining the profit at the company in the coming years as well?
Paweł Łapiński: Each decision about profit distribution is preceded by a thorough analysis. The Management Board must seek to ensure long-term financial security and internal coherence between all funding sources of the Grupa Azoty Group.
Our dividend recommendations ultimately depend on the investment projects we are pursuing, prevailing market conditions and our plans concerning cash flows across the Group. As for now, a binding declaration on the allocation of the Grupa Azoty Group’s future profits would be premature.
Guest: How long will it take you to pay off the credit facilities? What will be the maximum ratio of net debt to EBITDA? Will the banks which did not finance this project include this debt in the covenants or not?
Paweł Łapiński: The senior credit facilities will be repaid by Grupa Azoty Polyolefins until December 2030, with the option to extend the period by five years with the bank syndicate’s consent, which will reduce the last repayment instalment (balloon payment).
The Grupa Azoty Group’s net debt to EBITDA (adjusted for the exclusion of Grupa Azoty Polyolefins) will be below 3.5. With regard to the Grupa Azoty Group’s corporate financing, the SPV’s net debt and EBITDA will be excluded from the calculation of covenants, which has been provided for in the loan agreements.
anty_teresa: Has there been an increase in prices of compound fertilizers in the second quarter?
Paweł Łapiński: As always, the prices of compound fertilizers in Poland go down in the second quarter of the year to go up in the following months, and this year is no different.
No significant price movements are seen on foreign markets, where the prices of DAP, now in a sideways trend, are the key driver.
Misio: Gentlemen, we are pleased both with the results and the Polimery Police project, but the question is: what next? What does the situation in the Fertilizers segment look like now? When do you expect to bring the Plastics segment’s sales back to normal?
Paweł Łapiński: The main reason behind declining sales in the Plastics segment is lower demand triggered mainly by consumer uncertainty in the end-user sectors. The situation should improve after the first signs of an economic rebound.
The Fertilizers segment has already entered a new season, starting in June and ending in May of the next year. To be more specific, we have just signed agreements with Authorized Distributors for the sale of nitrogen and compound fertilizers on the Polish market. We are also entering into short-term and spot contracts on foreign markets, mainly in the EU.
We are optimistic about the prices of nitrogen fertilisers and their projected movements in the coming months – it appears that the drought’s impact on agricultural production will be moderate, and the prices of grains and rapeseed look promising for the medium term.
księgowy: Why did you decide to swap reverse factoring for a loan? If a loan is a cheaper form of financing, why didn’t you use it right from the start?
Paweł Łapiński: The Grupa Azoty Group uses various forms of working capital financing, including overdraft facilities, receivables factoring and reverse factoring. The financing costs are comparable. The Group uses this mechanism depending on current conditions.
Marek: Why should the financing by Grupa Azoty, KIND or LOTOS be partly provided in the form of subordinated loans and not only with equity and share issues? What will be the proportions of these two forms of financing in the case of external partners?
Marek Czyż: The Polimery Police project financing structure is a result of arrangements between all the entities involved in its financing. A partial share of subordinated loans in this structure is typical of the project finance model and was preferred by some of the parties to the transaction, for instance due to a high flexibility in distributing free funds to the investors. In the case of LOTOS, the subordinated loan amounts to PLN 200m, that is 40% of the total investment amount (PLN 500m). In the case of KIND, the loan amount will be USD 52m; KIND will buy shares for USD 5m. Hyundai will invest USD 73m exclusively in the share capital of Grupa Azoty Polyolefins.
Guest: What is the capacity utilisation rate of the new compound line?
Paweł Łapiński: At present, production of various types of plastics is being tested on the new compound line, which involves frequent changes in the production structure and changeover of the line. It will be possible to determine the capacity utilisation rate only after the end of the year.
Guest: Let me then put it in a different way. Is it reasonable to expect that there will be no dividend distribution before the Polimery Police project is completed?
Paweł Łapiński: All scenarios are possible.
Guest: Mr Łapiński, how can you explain such poor performance of Police given that gas prices are so low?
Paweł Łapiński: Police’s performance was largely affected by the result on compound fertilizers. Please bear in mind that, unlike in the case of nitrogen fertilizers, gas is not a major performance driver in the NPK segment. Additionally, the NPK market, and the DAP (phosphate fertilizer) market in particular, were flooded with imported fertilizers, which suppressed not only their prices (significant price cuts already in October 2019), but also their volumes (in fact, the volume effect had the largest bearing on the NPK result year on year). Also, the prices of phosphate rock and potassium chloride (key feedstocks in the compound fertilizers segment) increased by 11% and 3%, respectively.
brutalp: What do you think demand for fertilizers in Q2 2020 will be? Is the Chemicals segment still experiencing a major slump in demand?
Paweł Łapiński: We have a good starting position for compound fertilizers and a very good one for nitrogen fertilizers.
Rainfall in May improved the condition of crops in Poland and the EU. Farmers are still applying nitrogen fertilizers for maize crops, grassland and winter grains (third dose).
By and large, stock levels are low, which should prompt farmers to buy fertilizers for the next season.
The PLN/EUR and PLN/USD exchange rates have also been supportive to our business, making export sales of fertilizers more profitable.
Andy: The poor performance delivered by Police in the high-season quarter is a bit worrying. Is the post-financial-crisis situation from years ago likely to occur again? Will the company need assistance, particularly that it has to partially support a project like Polimery Police?
Paweł Łapiński: The results posted by Police were dragged down by the performance in compound fertilizers. Large volumes of goods, mainly DAP, were imported to Poland in the first quarter of 2020, significantly dampening our sales prices and volumes. We also recorded an increase in the cost base, reflecting rising prices of key raw materials: potassium salt and phosphate rock. On the other hand, strong results in nitrogen (ammonia and urea) made a positive contribution. Demand is strong and profit margins are wide in the segment, particularly thanks to very low natural gas prices. Obviously, we are monitoring performance on an ongoing basis, but no serious disruptions in the company’s full-year performance are expected.
Guest: Tell me again why Police was chosen as the site for the Polimery Police project? What are the synergies with Police?
Marek Czyż: The project’s location in Police offers strategic advantages in terms of supplies (feedstocks delivered by sea) and the proximity of and easy product distribution to key sales markets.
The project site being close to the existing plant of GA ZCh Police (one of the original shareholders in GA Polyolefins responsible for implementing the project) will create a number of synergies with GA ZCh Police’s infrastructure, including with respect to the supply of process media (electricity, steam, demi water, etc.) and services (wastewater treatment, etc.). GA ZCh Police will also receive hydrogen, a by-product of the propane dehydrogenation process from the PDH unit.
brutalp: Hello. What will be the capex spending on the PDH project this year, and what amount of capex can we expect to be spent by the entire group? Has the overall project budget been revised versus original assumptions (can you tell us again what is the expected total expenditure on the PDH project)?
Marek Czyż: Total capex planned to be spent on Police Polimery (PDH+PP) by the end of 2020 will exceed EUR 600m, out of ca. EUR 1.5bn of total estimated costs. There were no major revisions in the Polimery Police budget.
Guest: What is your average locked-in price of CO2 emission allowances?
Paweł Łapiński: It’s a trade secret. Hedging transactions with respect to the purchases of CO2 emission allowances are entered into regularly in line with the applied hedging policy, so the purchase prices factor in the average market price for a given period.
Guest: Are you going to recognise any electricity price adjustments/subsidies this year? How much income from subsidies did you book last year?
Paweł Łapiński: Grupa Azoty Group companies are entitled to receive public aid on account of the pass-through of emission costs to the prices of electricity used to make products in energy-intensive sectors and subsectors. No compensation income was recognised given the uncertainty surrounding the allocation of compensation payments in 2019. The total amount of compensation to be received for 2019 is estimated at about PLN 83.4m, and it was recognised as a contingent asset (an off-balance sheet item). If the President of the Energy Regulatory Office grants the applications filed by the Group companies, this amount will be paid to them in the second quarter of this year. The companies may also receive compensation for 2020 in a similar amount in 2021. If the payment of these amounts is considered probable, the Group will recognise them on an accrual basis in the 2020 statement of profit or loss.
Guest: When do you expect growth in plastics? How do orders compare to last year?
Paweł Łapiński: The situation in the plastics industry is strongly linked to the overall economic conditions. Orders dropped significantly. It’s hard to predict right now when deliveries will again be taken regularly. We expect this to happen when the economy recovers.
Guest: What proportion of compound fertilizer do you place on the home market, and how much do you export? Are these proportions different for nitrogen fertilizers?
Paweł Łapiński: Generally speaking, Poland is our priority market, accounting for ca. 70% of total nitrogen and compound fertilizer sales.
We export more nitrogen than compound fertilizers, which is directly linked to production capacities.
Guest: Why doesn’t ZA Puławy pay a higher dividend if it holds so much cash?
Paweł Łapiński: The dividend recommended by the Management Board of Azoty Puławy Group equals 36.7% of profit earned in 2019. The dividend policy set in Grupa Azoty’s corporate strategy provides for sharing up to 60% of its net profit with shareholders. However, the company’s capex programmes and financing needs must be taken into account.
Guest: Where do you plan to sell your products, given the market in Poland is already highly saturated: large imports virtually from all around the world + BOP’s dominating position.
Marek Czyż: According to Grupa Azoty Polyolefins’ data, global demand for polypropylene in 2017 was 80 million tonnes, with ca. 10 million tonnes in Europe alone. Market advisers estimate that demand reachable by the company in Europe (including Turkey) will exceed 12 million tonnes of PP in 2022. PP imports from outside Europe to the target market in the same year are estimated at ca. 3 million tonnes. The target market comprises Poland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavian countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. According to advisors, PP demand in this market will exceed 4.3 million tonnes in 2022. The size of the domestic polypropylene market in 2017 was 700,000 tonnes, of which about two-thirds were imports.
The predominance of PP imports to Poland and Europe from distant markets creates conditions for the product being marketed by Grupa Azoty Polyolefins as a local producer based in the heart of Europe.
księgowy: As Puławy has changed its segmentation to bring it in line with the rest of the Group, melamine is now recognised in Agro revenue. Shouldn’t it be shown separately to increase transparency?
Paweł Łapiński: The change was introduced as part of yet another stage of implementing segmental management at the Grupa Azoty Group. The melamine business was moved to the Agro Segment as a result of the existing process links, including the use of the same feedstocks for production, and the melamine sales function being part of the Agro Segment. Pursuant to IFRS 8, the presentation of operating segments should reflect how management monitors the particular business activities, and the change addresses this requirement.
Alone in the Dark: Has the company already held talks with customers for the plastics from the new line?
Paweł Łapiński: The company has its own customer base. Also, talks are held with new partners.
Guest: How many jobs will be created under the Polimery Police project?
Marek Czyż: Once the units are launched, Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, the SPV responsible for the Polimery Police project, will employ up to 400 people.
The company also expects that the construction of new units may create three times as many new jobs in its environment.
Guest: Current reports published yesterday mention call and put options for Polyolefins shares held by Hyundai and KIND. Which of the Grupa Azoty Group companies has a liability under the put option? I understand that this is not an equity investment on the part of the Koreans since the option exercise price (in USD) is equal to the price originally paid.
Marek Czyż: The liability under the put option is shared by Grupa Azoty and Grupa Azoty ZCh Police. It does not apply to all of the shares held by Hyundai and KIND, but to the shares with an aggregate original value of up to USD 70m. The exercise of the call or put option is one of the ways in which our Korean partners can exit the investment; another way of doing so, provided for in the documentation, is the option to carry out a public offering. In addition to investing in GA Polyolefins shares, KIND will also extend a subordinated loan to that company, also understood by the entities financing the Project as an equity investment.
Alone in the Dark: Dou you think it is possible for the Grupa Azoty Group to deliver results exceeding the five-year average this year?
Paweł Łapiński: It will hardly come as a surprise if I say that this year will be a challenging one for us. The pandemic does have a bearing on some of our segments. We won’t be able to avoid the consequences of the downturn in the automotive market (dragging down the Plastics segment’s performance) or in the furniture market (with adverse effect on melamine). Nevertheless, the Management Board is taking steps to achieve the best possible economic results, as demonstrated by our Q1 performance. Can we outperform the five-year average? It will certainly be a feat, but it is still doable.
księgowy: Are you considering acquisitions? Isn’t it now an opportune moment (as prices are low) to acquire such companies as Compo?
Paweł Łapiński: Following the acquisition of COMPO EXPERT, specialty fertilizers were added to the Grupa Azoty Group’s product mix, so now we can now offer a broad fertilizer portfolio. Irrespective of the bold investment programme pursued by the Grupa Azoty Group, we are closely monitoring market developments, also in the context of potential investment opportunities. For now though, we are focusing on the implementation of our investment programme, including on the Polimery Police project, which we have discussed in detail today.
Guest: Hello. The project implemented by GA Polyolefins was supposed to be financed under the project finance model, but from what I see you had to issue a subordinated loan guarantee for more than EUR 100m.
Paweł Łapiński: The Polimery Police project is financed under a project finance formula and is excluded from the Grupa Azoty Group’s corporate financing.
The Group’s financial exposure is strictly defined and may not exceed PLN 1,832m, as announced in the current report of May 31st 2020. The EUR 105m relates to the guarantee of contingency financing secured through the conclusion of a guarantee agreement for granting a support loan, which can be disbursed in specific circumstances, in particular in the event of an unforeseen increase in capital outlays, additional working capital requirement or the SPV’s difficulties in payment of financial liabilities. At present, the Polimery Police project’s financial model does not provide for the need to use this amount. The guarantee you are referring to was required by the financial institutions providing senior financing.
Guest: How much did you spend in total on counteracting the pandemic and supporting local hospitals? I’m asking about one-off costs in Q1 and the costs you have incurred so far in Q2.
Paweł Łapiński: Our support was not always of a monetary nature (for instance, we lent vehicles, provided assistance in purchasing the equipment), but if you’re asking about the exact amount we have so far directly allocated to fighting the pandemic, it is PLN 3.2m.
Guest: Gentlemen, what do you think was the key reason for the mismatch between analysts’ expectations and the Group’s actual performance?
Paweł Łapiński: I think that most analysts did not expect the nitrogen fertilizers segment to deliver such impressive sales volumes. Also Compo Expert posted much better results on its product mix. We should also keep in mind our Chemicals segment’s performance, especially in terms of OXO sales. These are the key drivers of what I believe to be a welcome discrepancy between our actual performance and market expectations.
Guest: To my mind, it takes a chemist to grasp the nature of the Grupa Azoty Group’s business. Perhaps it would be a good idea to make a presentation during a conference of what you manufacture on individual lines, what feedstocks and semi-finished products are used and in what quantities?
Paweł Łapiński: Thank you for your suggestion. We'll try and show you the ins and outs of our chemical business. Our investor presentations contain a slide showing the path from the raw material to the product – a production diagram. It is, of course, a simplified version.
Guest: Who is the region’s largest propylene and polypropylene manufacturer?
Marek Czyż: If the region is understood as the domestic market, the largest and currently the only manufacturer of polypropylene is Basell Orlen Polyolefins and of propylene – PKN Orlen. If the region is understood as Europe, the three largest polypropylene manufacturers are Lyondell Basell, Borealis, and Total. The leading propylene producers include BASF, Sabic, Naphtachimie, and Shell.
Guest: Will the Pigments segment report a loss in Q2 due to the pandemic in Italy?
Paweł Łapiński: The titanium white segment is certainly under pressure from current market conditions due to the pandemic, but it is unlikely that it should post a loss for the second quarter.
Guest: Which do you think is the most undervalued and overvalued company on the market?
Paweł Łapiński: Generally speaking, the recent months were far from ideal for the capital market, including for the Warsaw Stock Exchange, hence the stock performance of companies was way below expectations. In recent weeks, as stock exchanges start to get used to the pandemic crisis, also the chemical sector has been showing signs of recovery. Keep your fingers crossed for us, please.
Guest: Will the propane contracts (with terms of 1–2 years) have fixed or variable delivery prices, depending on market prices?
Marek Czyż: The market price of propane (and all petroleum products) is variable. Therefore, no fixed price contracts for propane are concluded on the market.
Guest: Is there any construction work in progress on the key project?
Marek Czyż: The general contractor has already begun construction work on all sub-projects, concentrating mainly on foundation work, such as preparation of screeds and reinforcement (the PDH unit and the port). Earthwork has already started on the site of the future polypropylene unit.
Most headway has been made in the port terminal: reinforcement of foundation slabs for propane and ethylene tanks has already been completed.
Paweł Łapiński and Marek Czyż: Ladies and gentlemen, our meeting today has come to an end. Thank you very much for taking part in this chat and for your questions. We wish everyone good health. See you at our next chat session.
moderator: On behalf of StockWatch.pl, I would like to thank you for an interesting discussion and invite you to our future chat sessions.
moderator: Welcome to our Q&A chat session with Paweł Łapiński, Vice President of the Grupa Azoty Management Board in charge of, among others, Investor Relations and Finance. The main topic of the meeting will be the company’s 2019 financial results.
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Paweł Łapiński: Hello. I’m glad to be able to talk to you again, this time via an online chat. I will be happy to answer your questions and provide you with information on the Group’s business and current market environment. All previous chats held via StockWatch.pl attracted strong interest. I hope this one will, too. You can ask your questions now.
abcabc: Hello. How is the drought affecting the company? Is it driving fertilizer consumption up or down? Is the company likely to benefit from low natural gas prices?
Paweł Łapiński: The current drought is having an adverse impact on the market for fertilizers, particularly nitrogen fertilizers. We can already see that in Poland today. Farmers have stopped applying fertilizer for winter cereals (2nd or 3rd dose) and are wondering which fertilizer application technology to choose for corn. The Group can benefit from that if farmers replace urea with the liquid fertilizer UAN. We have other crops in Poland, too, such as grassland, sugar beets. Rainfall in May and June could dramatically improve the situation here. The Group’s fertilizer business has moderately benefitted from low gas prices as prices of nitrogen fertilizers fell by over 10% in Poland and in the main markets of the European Union in late 2019 and early 2020.
inwestor_2k: Hello! What are the prices of fertilizers in Poland in the first quarter of the year?
Paweł Łapiński: Prices of nitrogen and compound fertilizers in the first quarter of 2020 were about 8%–15% lower year on year. The largest drops were recorded for Pulan and Zaksan nitrate fertilizers, and the smallest drops for Saletrosan nitrogen fertilizers with sulfur. As for the reasons for the declines, I would like to emphasise our position was completely different in terms of cost of natural gas – despite lower prices realised in the first quarter of 2020 no erosion in margins was reported.
Guest: Will a profit-sharing bonus be paid for 2019 to employees of Grupa Azoty S.A. of Tarnów? If so, when?
Paweł Łapiński: Last year’s performance was satisfactory, so I don’t see any reasons why the Management Board should not pass a resolution to pay an annual bonus to Grupa Azoty employees.
shareholder: Hello. Have you changed the budget assumptions for your project in Police given the current economic downturn?
Paweł Łapiński: Eleven financial institutions have agreed to lend us over one billion dollars for the Polimery Police project. We want all agreements to be signed within weeks. A positive lending decision issued by so many banks, who have analysed the investment model and all risks involved in the project, including those associated with the epidemic, is the answer to all those who would want to question the project and doubt it can be implemented. We are now negotiating the final terms of investment agreements with all the investors.
I would like to point out that construction of the units is to take just over two more years. The Polimery Police Project is currently progressing on schedule. Work on the fuel terminal (the port) and preparatory work on the main unit is bring carried out on a large scale.
PJ: Hello. First, I would like to wish you and all participants good health in this time. I’d like to talk about the natural gas market. Does Grupa Azoty plan to diversify its gas supplies any time soon and take advantage of the oversupply of US LNG, for instance by importing liquefied natural gas from the US via Świnoujście or Lithuania? Also, is Grupa Azoty taking measures to exploit the low price environment and lock in the price for future supplies?
Paweł Łapiński: Thank you very much wishing us health as we all need it. Let me wish the same for you.
Now moving on to your question. Grupa Azoty does not plan to diversify its gas supplies or import LNG from the US independently any time soon. Despite high consumption, an LNG ship and the speed of the regasification process would exceed our current capabilities. We’d have to store a large part of the gas, which would make the whole operation much more expensive. Secondly, all capacities at the Świnoujście terminal are booked. Importing LNG through Lithuania would entail the obligation to hold mandatory stocks, which would further increase the cost of the gas. Finally, cheap LNG reaching Europe directly influences prices on commodity exchanges, which serve as a benchmark in our pricing formulas. So, we are indirectly benefitting from the oversupply on the LNG market.
As for locking in prices for the coming years, natural gas is now cheap on the spot market, but not on the futures market. Prices of gas in futures contracts for next year delivery are about twice the spot price. Besides, locking in the price involves the obligation to take deliveries of the gas over the entire contract term, which poses considerable risks. We hedge against fluctuations in gas prices, but over shorter time horizons.
pasha: Will the Management Board recommend dividend payment, or is this unrealistic in the light of the massive investment outlays?
Paweł Łapiński: The Management Board is yet to issue a recommendation concerning the distribution of Grupa Azoty’s net profit for 2019. A relevant resolution should be passed in May, and we will promptly inform you about it in a current report. Having said that, I would like to remind you that the update of Grupa Azoty’s strategy for 2013–2020 states that the overriding objective of our financial structure is to ensure long-term financial security and internal coherence among all funding sources. The strategy also provides that, in justified cases like the implementation of an extensive investment programme or the risk of a downturn, the Management Board may recommend against a dividend payment. Of course, the final decision on the amount of a dividend always rests with the General Meeting.
Guest: Did the compounds unit generate any revenue in the fourth quarter, or was it a drag on performance, if only because of the depreciation expense?Paweł Łapiński: Revenue was recorded in the fourth quarter. The depreciation started in January 2020.
Picasso797: I have a question about export sales. Are there any problems with logistics?
Paweł Łapiński: Land logistics operators are working properly, and maritime logistics operations are also maintained, although some short delays occur. Logistics service fees are rising.
Guest: Was the sharp growth in salaries seen in the fourth quarter a result of employee bonuses, an increase in actuarial provisions or a pay rise?
Paweł Łapiński: Labour costs rose in the fourth quarter of 2019 chiefly on the back of an agreement signed with respect to length-of-service awards and retirement and disability severance payments in Grupa Azoty Police and an increase in actuarial and holiday provisions. The provision for annual bonus payments also increased given the strong performance delivered by the Group.
Matan: Why no reverse factoring inflows and only outflows are disclosed in the statement of cash flows?
Paweł Łapiński: Reverse factoring is presented separately in the statement of cash flows, with outflows (repayments) disclosed in cash flows used in financing activities and inflows disclosed in cash provided by operating activities.
Ludwix: When do you expect prices on the titanium white market to rebound?
Paweł Łapiński: The titanium white market is subject to seasonality and if normal market factors were in play this is what we would expect in the second quarter. But due to the current situation and the related volatility and market uncertainty we expect prices will rebound in the third quarter, assuming the pandemic will ease.
Totmes: Does Grupa Azoty hedge against fluctuations in energy prices using contracts on POLPX and if so to what extent?
Paweł Łapiński: Grupa Azoty has secured electricity supply for all companies in 2020. Its main electricity suppliers are Poland’s leading energy trading companies. Electricity is purchased on POLPX in small quantities as needed in order to adjust daily purchasing requirements.
PJ: Do you expect Covid-19 to have a negative impact on performance in the fertilizer business? Local authorities are looking for savings, and some have already announced cuts to spending on the maintenance of green areas. Should a major or a minor drop in demand be expected as a result of that?
Paweł Łapiński: Grupa Azoty’s fertilizers segment mainly serves farms engaged in growing basic crops: winter and spring cereals, oilseed rape, maize, sugar beet, potato and forage crops. We also serve the vegetable and fruit markets through Compo Expert. The maintenance of green areas is of marginal importance to Grupa Azoty.
Miron: What is the cost of the photovoltaic power station in Osiek?
Paweł Łapiński: The same as for most state-of-the-art professional photovoltaic micro-farms (an approximately 5 MW power station with an annual output of about 5 GWh built to meet the needs of a single industrial customer Grupa Azoty Kopalnie i Zakłady Chemiczne Siarki Siarkopol S.A.). Given the current status of the project, it is too early to share any details without consulting the project partner PGE Energia Odnawialna.
Miron: Hello. When do you expect the coal gasification project will be completed and commence commercial operation?
Paweł Łapiński: The coal gasification project has been a high-priority chemical, not energy, project, but we need an energy partner with a stable source of hard coal as the fuel. The energy partner is Tauron Polska Energia. Given the EU’s regulatory restrictions and uncertainty in the energy commodities market, I can’t tell you anything sure about the project’s time frame.
Pedro: Will the new power plant in Puławy just replace the existing capacities or will it also contribute to reducing the volumes of energy purchased on the market?
Paweł Łapiński: The new CHP plant at GA ZA Puławy is designed and balanced to meet the needs of our production plant in Puławy. We have repeatedly stated that we have no plans to enter the commercial power market or compete with energy companies. We may purchase small quantities of energy from time to time or sell energy ‘to the grid’.
Pedro: Do you think gas prices will remain low over the remainder of the year? Have the falling prices somewhat reduced the risk of fertilizers being imported from the east?
Paweł Łapiński: Current gas prices are favourable and, if the strong impact of these factors continues, the prices should remain at relatively low levels in 2020. However, the current situation in the oil market and geopolitical factors are creating uncertainty.
Guest: How much gas is used to make about one tonne of urea and how much urea is used to make melamine? Does unit consumption of natural gas significantly differ between NPK and nitrogen fertilizers?
Paweł Łapiński: The operating parameters of fertilizer units at Grupa Azoty are within the ranges provided for in BAT (Best Available Techniques).
In our production processes, we strive to maximise cost efficiencies by upgrading and increasing capacity utilisation of key units while optimising feedstock consumption.
Guest: Has Compo opened any new sales markets for Polish fertilizer plants?
Paweł Łapiński: Yes. Collaboration with the Compo Expert sales organisation has allowed us to acquire many new foreign customers who buy, either directly or indirectly, the Group’s fertilizer products made in Poland. This wouldn’t have been possible without the Compo Expert Group’s existing customer relationships and its international presence.
Guest: Did the company apply for subsidy payments in respect of energy costs under the electricity law and if so where are they disclosed in the financial statements?
Paweł Łapiński: Grupa Azoty did apply for energy price subsidies. They are presented as revenue.
Guest: Oil prices have recently slumped into negative territory. This situation has no precedent, so I would like to ask if and how the conditions in the oil market are affecting your business. Thank you.
Paweł Łapiński: Oil market swings are heavily affecting the plastic products chain. In April, we recorded a sharp drop in benzene and phenol prices. Contract prices fell by over EUR 400 per tonne on March. Spot prices of PA6 also declined significantly.
Guest: Hello. Expenditure incurred on the granulated fertilizer unit has almost reached budget (363/385) although the project is not due for completion until 2021. Do you expect the budget will be exceeded or the unit will start commercial operation ahead of schedule?
Paweł Łapiński: We are building two lines of mechanical granulation of nitrate fertilizers and shared logistics infrastructure in Puławy. So the project is a multi-stage process. We are considering building an additional unit, so extending the completion deadline and increasing the budget would be reasonable.
Trawiak: The strategy mentions completion of the Group’s consolidation process. Six years have passed since the Puławy acquisition and the consolidation and synergy implementation process has not yet been completed? Why is this taking so long?
Paweł Łapiński: By all means the consolidation process has been completed and synergies have been achieved, as communicated to the market in our reports. We have appetite for more and since the time horizon of our current strategy is 2020 it shouldn’t come as a surprise that, being a forward-looking organisation, we have started work on the Group’s strategy until 2030.
Guest: How is the company functioning during the epidemic? Have you reduced the number of employees per shift? Is this affecting performance? Have any employees contracted the coronavirus?
Paweł Łapiński: Grupa Azoty is operating without major disruptions and has implemented all safety measures and actions designed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. No major employee absenteeism has been reported that could affect production efficiency. We have had three cases of COVID-19 but with no significant impact on the Group’s operations. Where possible, work is performed remotely.
Paweł Łapiński: Thank you for interesting questions. I am glad to see you’re interested in Grupa Azoty. We’re out of time, so we must say goodbye. I wish everyone good health. Thank you for being here with me today. See you again next time.
moderator: On behalf of StockWatch.pl, I would like to thank you for an interesting discussion and invite you to our future chat sessions.
Investor webchat - fundamental situation and results of the Azoty Group companies after the first three quarters of 2019 and the ongoing Public Offer with Pre-emptive Rights at the Azoty Police S.A.
At Thursday 10th of October 2019, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible i.a. for finance. The meeting was mainly devoted to financial results generated by the Azoty Group companies in the first half of 2019.
At Tuesday 28th of May 2019, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible i.a. for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results first quarter of 2019.
At Tuesday 18th of Sptember 2018, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible i.a. for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results first half of 2018.
At Wednesday 25th of April 2018, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results for the year 2017.
At Wedesday. 22nd of November, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapinski, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results for the Q3 2017.
At Tuesday, 5th of September, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results for the first half of 2017.
At Tuesday, 16th of May, an investor chat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance. The meeting was devoted to financial results for the first quarter of 2017 and the 2013-2020 Strategy, updated by the Management Board.
At 14:00 on Monday, November 14th, an investor webchat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance.
At 12:00 on Thursday, September 8th, an investor webchat was held with Mr Paweł Łapiński, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance.
At 13:13 on Friday, May 13th, an investor webchat was held with Mr Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. for Finance.
At 12:00 am on Friday, March 18th, an investor webchat was held with Mr Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of Grupa Azoty S.A. for Finance.
At 11:00 am on Wednesday, November 21st, a webchat was held with Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of the Management Board of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance.
At 10:00am on Friday, March 27th, StockWatch held a webchat with representatives of Grupa Azoty S.A. The participants’ questions were answered by Mr Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of the Management Board of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance.
At 12:00 noon on Friday, November 21st, a webchat was held with Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of the Management Board of Grupa Azoty S.A. responsible for finance.
At 12:00 noon on Monday, September 22nd, a webchat was held with Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of the Management Board of Grupa Azoty S.A., hosted by the Polish Association of Individual Investors.
At 11:30 am on Monday, May 26th, a webchat was held with Andrzej Skolmowski, Vice-President of the Management Board of Grupa Azoty S.A., hosted by the Polish Association of Individual Investors.